My Prediction for Top Gun 2 Plot

We've known for about a year that Tom Cruise is returning to his iconic "Maverick" role from Top Gun, and that drone warfare would be involved. A few days ago we heard a few more details in this Collider story:

[Producer David Ellison]: There is an amazing role for Maverick in the movie and there is no Top Gun without Maverick, and it is going to be Maverick playing Maverick. It is I don’t think what people are going to expect, and we are very, very hopeful that we get to make the movie very soon. But like all things, it all comes down to the script, and Justin is writing as we speak.

[Interviewer]; You’re gonna do what a lot of sequels have been doing now which is incorporate real use of time from the first one to now.

ELLISON and DANA GOLDBERG: Absolutely...

ELLISON:  As everyone knows with Tom, he is 100% going to want to be in those airplanes shooting it practically. When you look at the world of dogfighting, what’s interesting about it is that it’s not a world that exists to the same degree when the original movie came out. This world has not been explored. It is very much a world we live in today where it’s drone technology and fifth generation fighters are really what the United States Navy is calling the last man-made fighter that we’re actually going to produce so it’s really exploring the end of an era of dogfighting and fighter pilots and what that culture is today are all fun things that we’re gonna get to dive into in this movie.

What could the plot involve?

First, who is the adversary? You can't have dogfighting without a foe. Consider the leading candidates:

• Russia: Maybe. Nobody is fond of what President Putin is doing in Ukraine.
• Iran: Possible, but Hollywood types are close to the Democrats, and they will not likely want to upset Iran if Secretary Kerry secures a nuclear deal.
• China: No way. Studios want to release movies in China, and despite the possibility of aerial conflict in the East or South China Seas, no studio is going to make China the bad guy. In fact, the studio will want to promote China as a good guy to please that audience.
• North Korea: No way. Prior to "The Interview," this was a possibility. Not anymore!

My money is on an Islamic terrorist group, either unnamed, or possibly Islamic State. They don't have an air force, you say? This is where the drone angle comes into play.

Here is my prediction for the Top Gun 2 plot.

Oil tankers are trying to pass through the Gulf of Aden, or maybe the Strait of Hormuz, carrying their precious cargo. Suddenly a swarm of small, yet armed, drones attack and destroy the convoy, setting the oil ablaze in a commercial and environmental disaster. The stock market suffers a huge drop and gas prices skyrocket.

The US Fifth Fleet, and its Chinese counterpart, performing counter-piracy duties nearby, rush to rescue the survivors. They set up joint patrols to guard other commercial sea traffic. Later the Islamic group sends another swarm of drones to attack the American and Chinese ships. This time the enemy includes some sort of electronic warfare-capable drones that jam US and Chinese GPS, communications, and computer equipment. (I'm seeing a modern "Battlestar Galactica" theme here.) American and Chinese pilots die, and their ships are heavily damaged. (By the way, this is Hollywood, not real life.)

The US Navy realizes that its "net-centric," "technologically superior" force can't compete with this new era of warfare. Cue the similarities with the pre-Fighter Weapons School, early Vietnam situation described in the first scenes at Miramar in the original movie. (Remember, a 12-1 kill ratio in Korea, 3-1 in early Vietnam due to reliance on missiles and atrophied dogfighting skills, back to 12-1 in Vietnam after Top Gun training?)

The US Navy decides it needs to bring back someone who thinks unconventionally in order to counter the drone threat and resume commercial traffic in the Gulf. They find Maverick, barely hanging on to a job teaching at a civilian flight school. His personal life is a mess, and he was kicked out of the Navy during the first Gulf War in 1991 for breaking too many rules. Now the Navy wants him to teach a new generation of pilots how to fight once their "net-centric crutches" disappear.

You know what happens next. Maverick returns to the Navy as a contractor. Top Gun is now the Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center (NSAWC) at NAS Fallon, Nevada. The Navy retired his beloved F-14 in 2006, so there is a choice to be made about what aircraft awaits him in Nevada. I see three possibilities:

1) The Navy resurrects the F-14 because it's "not vulnerable" to the drone electronic warfare. This would be cool, but they aren't going to be able to fly American F-14s due to their retirement. CGI maybe?

2) The Navy flies the new F-35, because it's new and cool. However, the Navy will probably not have any to fly. CGI again?

3) The Navy flies the F-18. This is most likely, because producers could film live operations as they did in the 1980s.

Beyond the aircraft issues, I expect themes involving relevance as one ages, re-integration with military culture, and possibly friction between members of the joint US-China task force created to counter the Islamic threat.

In the end, thanks to the ingenuity of Maverick's teaching and tactics, the Americans and Chinese prevail over the Islamic forces. It might require Maverick to make the ultimate sacrifice, showing he's learned that warfare is a team sport, and that he really misses Goose. The Chinese name their next aircraft carrier the "Pete Mitchell" in honor of Maverick's sacrifice. (Forget calling it the "Maverick" -- too much rebellion for the CCP.)

I'm looking forward to this movie.

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